Penser soi-même

Le plus grand risque pour une stratégie d'investissment (ou pour n'importe quelle stratégie probablement): laisser les autres faire des choix à notre place.

Une comparaison intéressante entre l'approche de Warren Buffet et celle de Ken Lewis.

My observation is that independent thought is extremely rare, which makes it very valuable.  On the other hand, outsourced thinking appears to be pervasive in the investment community, and because of how we're wired, the dynamic is unlikely to change.  Regardless of how convincing the facts are, we are just more comfortable if we can mold our opinion around the opinion of others.

L'endettement pour la croissance

Entrevue avec un des protagonistes du livre/film The Big Short.

Where do we stand now, economically?
Well, we are right back at it: trying to stimulate growth through easy money. It hasn’t worked, but it’s the only tool the Fed’s got. Meanwhile, the Fed’s policies widen the wealth gap, which feeds political extremism, forcing gridlock in Washington. It seems the world is headed toward negative real interest rates on a global scale. This is toxic. Interest rates are used to price risk, and so in the current environment, the risk-pricing mechanism is broken. That is not healthy for an economy. We are building up terrific stresses in the system, and any fault lines there will certainly harm the outlook.

What makes you most nervous about the future?
Debt. The idea that growth will remedy our debts is so addictive for politicians, but the citizens end up paying the price. The public sector has really stepped up as a consumer of debt. The Federal Reserve’s balance sheet is leveraged 77:1. Like I said, the absurdity, it just befuddles me.

Des rendements pas fameux

Les prédictions pour le rendement sur les placements ne s'améliorent pas (via The Economist).

Une occasion manquée ?

Maintenant que les taux d'intérêt devraient remonter, est-ce que le manque d'investissement dans les infrastructures nationales aura été une erreur ?

Faire mentir les chiffres

Conduct enough tests on a bunch of data—run through half a million genetic sequences to find a link with a disease, for example—and there will be many sequences that appear meaningful. But most will be the result of chance.  (via The Economist)

Delta

Compagnie intéressante.  À suivre, pour voir si ça va continuer comme ça.

Économie des USA par ville

Les 6 plus grandes villes représentent 25% du PIB des États-Unis.
Voir la carte complète ici.

Perspectives d'avenir

Un peu dans le même sens que cet article sur defined contributions vs defined benefits, les perspectives d'avenir de Warren Buffett et de l'IQPF ne sont pas trop encourageantes.  Au moins, elles sont réalistes.

Buffett: 

The economy, as measured by gross domestic product, can be expected to grow at an annual rate of about 3 percent over the long term, and inflation of 2 percent would push nominal GDP growth to 5 percent. Stocks will probably rise at about that rate and dividend payments will boost total returns to 6 percent to 7 percent.

Why such a different picture than the 10% or 15% suggestions that investment managers often give? Those managers are using overoptimistic approaches.

Retirement advice that indicates that you’ll be fine by just saving 10% of your income starting at age 40 is using unrealistic assumptions, at least from Buffett’s perspective.  Save plenty for retirement, and start saving now.

IQPF:

Quand on fait une planification financière, on devrait utiliser une hypothèse de rendement de 3,75 % pour un portefeuille équilibré, selon l’Institut québécois de la planification financière (IQPF). Tant mieux si votre courtier fait mieux. Mais il ne faut pas se fier là-dessus. 

Mondialisation

Japanese whiskey maker Suntory Holdings is buying Beam, in a $16 billion deal that will create an international alcohols conglomerate [...]

Beam's portfolio of alcohols incdudes Jim Beam, Maker's Mark and Knob Creek bourbons, Teacher's and Laphroaig Scotch whiskies, Canadian Club whisky, Courvoisier cognac, Sauza tequila, and Pinnacle vodka. Suntory is the maker of Japanese whiskies Yamazaki, Hakushu, Hibiki, and Kakubin, Bowmore Scotch whisky and Midori liqueur.

Comment financer les infrastructures

Le cas de Chicago.

Defined benefits vs. Defined contribution

Meanwhile, a longer-term problem is being stored up. Many companies have abandoned final-salary or defined-benefit (DB) pensions for new staff and switched to defined-contribution (DC) schemes, in large part because of the high cost of the former. These place the investment risk firmly on the employee.

Low real interest rates imply that workers should save a bigger sum for their old age in order to generate their desired income. But currently payments into British DC schemes, from both employer and employee, are just 8.9% of salary (the American contribution numbers are similar). According to the Pensions Corporation, another consultancy, a 35-year-old who funds a DC scheme at such a level will retire on just 8% of his final salary if interest rates are low. To earn the equivalent of a DB pension worth half their final pay-cheque, they or their employer would have to contribute 55% of their salary.

That might sound a tall order. But funnily enough, the Bank of England contributes 56.4% of its payroll to its DB scheme, which is almost entirely invested in inflation-linked bonds. It is a nice irony that the bank, which has done so much to discourage saving, is one of the most prudent savers of all.

(via The Economist)